@TheEmu I won 150 credits twice, which hardly counts as several times - this is consistent with a likelihood of wining it is probably somewhere between about 0.5% and about 3% depending on whether I was lucky to get 2 or unlucky not to win 3 - basically all I can say is its quite low. I did win 35 credits several times and I won 15 credits on much more than half my plays although I have no idea how many of those were replacements for what should have been free cards. if I did not have a full collection.
Yes I said several times meaning more than once, because in your initial post you said 2 or 3 times. Ok let's say you won 150 credits twice compared to a 3D member who didn't win this prize even once.
Imagine you didn't win these 2 prizes and you're 300 credits down. You said you played between 130 & 150 times, I'm counting 140 times for 2,100 credit spent. You still would have 1,700 credits back by winning prizes of 15 & 35 credits, and that's winning back 85% of your investment. Even without the 150 credit wins, your win % is still higher than my example as a 3D member.
I played 110 times and if I had won 15 credits instead of random cards, I would have got 1,035 credits back, which represents 62.7% of my investment.
Playing over a hundred times is nowhere nearly a big enough sample. To be able to get a reasonable estimate of how often the 150 credit prize is won you need a sample in which this prize is won many times - a couple of dozen times or so (and even that will only give you loose estimate). The same is true for the other high value prizes, i.e. Jokers and SECs.
Yes, of course, I agree.
I mean playing 100 times already shows chances of winning an SEC, joker or 150 credit prize is below 1%.
Based on my experience I can not tell whether or not this game is a "good bet" for those with full collections. It does, however, look to be a good deal for those with much smaller collections, for whom the normal card price is significantly higher than that which I pay, providing they do not care about which cards they win.
Same here, I'm just guessing, since another maxed-out member said his winnings were not as high as yours. We would need examples of members with different status to have a better idea.